Prohibit wildfire event contracts on prediction markets by amending the Commodity Exchange Act.

Michael Baumgartner · Washington · Republican

policy impact 0.55 specificity 0.90 extraction confidence 82%

Commitment kind: unknown. Promised action: not established. Promised outcome: not established. Deadline: unknown; not assumed expired.

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Occurrences

Evidence

legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

GovInfo lists H.R. 10109 as introduced in the House, sponsored by Michael Baumgartner, with last action on August 17, 2026: referred to Agriculture and Judiciary.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Official bill metadata confirms Baumgartner introduced a bill matching the commitment, but the latest listed action remains committee referral, so the promised statutory prohibition has not been enacted as of the refresh date.

unresolved same_term A for effort

H.R. 10109 (IH) - Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act - BILLS-119hr10109ih | Content Details | GovInfo
primary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

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legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

The introduced text would amend Commodity Exchange Act section 5c(c)(5) so wildfire event contracts may not be listed or cleared on a registered entity.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): The bill text directly addresses the promised policy: prohibiting wildfire event contracts on prediction markets through an amendment to the Commodity Exchange Act. Because the text is only the introduced version, it shows concrete effort but not final delivery.

unresolved same_term A for effort

H.R. 10109 Introduced in House - Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 97%

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Assessments

Public state: unverified As of unknown · legacy_unverified · . Original AI recommendation (not independently established): unresolved. same_term A for effort

Baumgartner sponsored and introduced H.R. 10109, the Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act, which directly matches the promise by proposing to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit wildfire event contracts on prediction markets. As of September 9, 2026, the bill's latest official status is still referral to the House Agriculture and Judiciary Committees, with no passage or enactment. That is a concrete same-term legislative effort, but the promised statutory prohibition has not yet been delivered.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%