Warren, Merkley, 40+ Lawmakers Push Regulators to Address Illegal Insider Trading in Prediction Markets ... [they] wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) urging the agencies to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees.
Urge federal regulators to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees.
Occurrences
Evidence
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U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, along with Senators Amy Klobuchar, Jeff Merkley, Representative Maxine Waters, Representative Angie Craig, and 37 other lawmakers, wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) urging the agencies to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees.
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Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act to ban the President, Vice President, Members of Congress, and other public officials from trading event contracts, aiming to prevent insider trading in prediction markets.
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Rep. Jamie Raskin and Senator Jeff Merkley introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions, aiming to prevent corruption and insider trading.
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Senators Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to prohibit federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to bet on prediction market contracts.
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GovInfo shows Sen. Jeff Merkley introduced S. 4226, the Stop Trading On Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act of 2026, which would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit certain event contracts on prediction markets; the bill was read twice and referred to the Senate Agriculture Committee.
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Merkley and colleagues pressed the CFTC to issue rules that prevent insider trading and corruption in prediction markets and asked the agency to preserve the statute's intent by restricting contracts tied to elections, war, sports, and government actions without a valid hedging purpose.
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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced an order filing and settling charges against Gabriel Perez for misappropriating material, nonpublic information obtained through his federal government employment in order to trade event contracts (i.e., swaps) on a prediction market platform for his personal benefit.
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U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), along with Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Representative Maxine Waters, Representative Angie Craig (D-Minn.), and 37 other lawmakers, wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) urging the agencies to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees.
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“We ask that the CFTC and OGE issue guidance reminding federal employees of their existing legal obligation to refrain from using their insider governmental information to profit from prediction market trades,” wrote the lawmakers.
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This case marks the first time the CFTC has charged insider trading involving event contracts, and the first time the CFTC has used the so-called ‘Eddie Murphy Rule’ to bring charges based on the misuse of government information.
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We urge you to address conflicts of interest and the potential for insider trading in prediction markets.
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The Commission believes that certain event contracts involving Enumerated Activities may create unique incentives for information leakage or misuse of material nonpublic information—for example, by encouraging individuals with privileged access to disclose or act upon such information, by incentivizing the unlawful acquisition of additional sensitive information, or by enabling third parties to pressure, solicit, or bribe such individuals to obtain it.
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Robustness of prophylactic trading rules, surveillance, and controls. DMO staff expects that any DCM seeking to list any Mention Market contract will implement prophylactic trading rules, surveillance, and controls reasonably designed to detect and deter manipulation, attempted manipulation, and the misappropriation of nonpublic information in connection with the listed contracts.
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WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced an order filing and settling charges against Gabriel Perez for misappropriating material, nonpublic information obtained through his federal government employment in order to trade event contracts (i.e., swaps) on a prediction market platform for his personal benefit.
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We urge you to address conflicts of interest and the potential for insider trading in prediction markets. The Commission should issue clear guidance and guardrails for prediction market companies to abide by when listing event contracts in order to prevent insider trading and potential corruption by government officials, political candidates, government employees, political campaigns, and similar individuals and entities.
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Mr. Merkley (for himself, Ms. Warren, Mr. Blumenthal, Mr. Van Hollen, and Mr. Whitehouse) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
Assessments
Merkley directly urged federal regulators (CFTC and OGE) to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets, and he also co-sponsored/intoduced related legislation targeting the same problem. That matches the promise as stated, which is about pressing regulators to act, not requiring a final regulatory rule or enforcement outcome.
Multiple pieces of evidence confirm that Senator Merkley directly urged federal regulators and introduced/co-sponsored legislation to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees, precisely matching the promise. Efforts included public letters to regulators and the introduction of several relevant bills in the same Senate term.
Senator Jeff Merkley not only urged federal regulators to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees via a public letter (fulfilling the precise wording of the promise), but also introduced and co-sponsored related legislation aimed directly at preventing such activities. These executive and legislative actions clearly meet and exceed the original promise to 'urge' federal regulators.
Senator Jeff Merkley not only urged federal regulators to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees, fulfilling the explicit campaign promise, but also introduced and supported multiple pieces of legislation targeting this exact issue. The evidence demonstrates direct action in the form of public letters to regulators and multiple bill introductions, all within the same term. There is strong, consistent evidence of both advocacy and legislative efforts directly aligned with the promise's content.