Raskin and Merkley’s STOP Corrupt Bets Act responds to the recent explosion of prediction markets, which now offer event contracts on everything from elections to sports and acts of war. The bicameral bill would ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports and military actions. ... The STOP Corrupt Bets Act would: Explicitly prohibit event contracts on: Elections and their outcome; Government actions across all branches unless there’s a commercial hedging need; Sports, and; U.S. or foreign military actions. Clarify that the intent of Congress in the original statute was that these markets are already against the intent of the Commodity Exchange Act , and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) must enforce and prevent any market that doesn’t have a commercial hedging value to prevent unregulated gambling. Clarify that nothing in this bill preempts any State law that regulates or prohibits gambling or gaming. Require the non-partisan, independent Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a study on prediction markets, insider trading, preventing any other markets that are “gaming” or gambling, the impact on children, and ways Congress can rein in offshore illegal bets.
Support and work to pass legislation that would ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions (across all branches unless there’s a commercial hedging need), sports, and U.S. or foreign military actions; clarify congressional intent that these markets are against the Commodity Exchange Act; require the CFTC to enforce and prevent non-hedging markets; ensure state gambling laws are not preempted; and require a GAO study on prediction markets, insider trading, impact on children, offshore illegal betting, and future Congressional actions to regulate such markets.
Occurrences
Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act to ban the President, Vice President, Members of Congress, and other public officials from trading event contracts, aiming to prevent insider trading in prediction markets.
Merkley and Raskin’s STOP Corrupt Bets Act responds to the recent explosion of prediction markets... The bicameral bill would ban betting through prediction markets on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions... The STOP Corrupt Bets Act would: Explicitly prohibit event contracts on: Elections and their outcome; Government actions across all branches unless there’s a commercial hedging need; Sports, and; U.S. or foreign military actions. Clarifies that the intent of Congress in the original statute was that these markets are already against the intent of the Commodity Exchange Act, and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) must enforce and prevent any market that doesn’t have a commercial hedging value to prevent federal gambling. Requires the non-partisan, independent Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a study on prediction markets, insider trading, preventing any other markets that are “gaming” or gambling, the impact on children, and ways Congress can rein in offshore illegal bets. This legislation also returns the power of regulating gambling to the states by ensuring they can choose to allow gambling and regulate it under state jurisdiction or prohibit it.
The bill prohibits federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to bet on a prediction market contract. ... This legislation would ban them from using non-material public information of any kind on any event contract. ... Our bill will prohibit elected officials, staff, and executive branch employees from trading prediction market event contracts based on information acquired as part of their official duties. ... The details of the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 : Covered individuals : President, Vice President, Members of Congress, employees of the House of Representatives and Senate, political appointees (including the President’s cabinet), employees of an Executive agency or independent regulatory agency. Insider information : Any information that a reasonable investor would consider important in making a decision related to a prediction market contract and is not publicly available. Covered transactions: The purchase, sale, or exchange of any prediction market contract that is offered on a U.S. or foreign domiciled platform. Penalties: Any covered individual who violates the prohibition shall be fined the greater of either $500, or the amount equal to double the profit made in the transaction. Enforcing body: No later than 180 days after date of enactment the Office of Government Ethics, Select Committee on Ethics, and Committee on Ethics of the House of Representatives will: impose and collect penalties, establish procedures and standards, issue rules and guidelines in consultation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission – and publish such information on a website.
Evidence
On March 26, 2026, Senator Jeff Merkley and Representative Jamie Raskin introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions. The bill aims to prevent corruption and restore public trust by prohibiting event contracts in these areas and clarifying that such markets are against the Commodity Exchange Act.
On March 30, 2026, Senator Merkley, along with over 40 lawmakers, urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of Government Ethics to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees. They requested guidance reminding federal employees of their legal obligations and sought information on existing investigations into such activities.
On March 5, 2026, Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act to prevent federal elected officials from trading event contracts. The bill aims to curb potential insider trading and conflicts of interest by banning the President, Vice President, Members of Congress, and other public officials from engaging in prediction markets.
On March 26, 2026, Senator Jeff Merkley and Representative Jamie Raskin introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions.
On March 30, 2026, Senator Merkley, Senator Warren, and over 40 lawmakers urged the CFTC and OGE to address illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees.
H.R. 8123, introduced on March 26, 2026, is titled the Stop Trading On Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act of 2026. Its full title says it would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit certain event contracts on prediction markets and for other purposes.
Merkley’s office said the STOP Corrupt Bets Act would ban betting through prediction markets on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions, and described the bill as restoring the original intent of prediction markets.
Assessments
Merkley repeatedly sponsored and advanced legislation and regulatory advocacy that directly aligns with the promise: he co-introduced Senate and House-backed bills (e.g., the STOP Corrupt Bets Act / Stop Trading On Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act of 2026 and the End Prediction Market Corruption Act) to ban prediction-market event contracts on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions and to clarify treatment under the Commodity Exchange Act, and he co-led a multi-member letter urging the CFTC and OGE to address insider trading in prediction markets. However, there is no evidence these proposals were enacted into law, that the CFTC was compelled to enforce the full ban, that state preemption/anti-preemption protections were implemented, or that a GAO study as described was required. Because Merkley materially advanced the promised legislative and regulatory effort but the statutory/regulatory outcomes and GAO study were not completed, the claim is partially fulfilled.
Senator Merkley introduced and championed multiple pieces of legislation and led efforts urging regulators to address the issues outlined in his promise. However, there is no evidence any of these bills became law or that the promise's entire scope—such as actual bans, clarification of the Commodity Exchange Act, enforcement requirements for CFTC, protection of state gambling laws, and commissioning a GAO study—was fully realized. Significant effort was demonstrated through introduction of major bills closely aligned with the promise and regulatory pressure, but the legislative outcome fell short of full delivery.
Senator Merkley introduced and advocated for multiple pieces of legislation in the same Senate term aiming to comprehensively ban prediction market betting as described in the campaign promise. However, there is no evidence the proposed bills became law or that all intended policy outcomes (such as a mandated GAO study, explicit CFTC enforcement requirements, and statutory clarifications regarding state law preemption) were realized. Therefore, though serious legislative efforts were made, the full promise was not delivered.