Ban the listing of sports prediction market contracts and casino-style games by CFTC-registered entities through federal legislation.

John W. Hickenlooper · Colorado · Democratic

policy impact 7.00 specificity 8.00 extraction confidence 97%

Contest this claim

Occurrences

Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced bipartisan legislation to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing prediction contracts related to sporting events. The bill also seeks to prohibit 'casino-style games' from being listed on these platforms.

Reported introduction of legislation to ban sports prediction contracts and casino-style games on CFTC-registered markets.

Sens. Schiff, Curtis Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Ban Sports Prediction Market Contracts
primary · other · model gpt-4.1

The bicameral bill would ban betting through prediction markets on ... sports ... The STOP Corrupt Bets Act would: Explicitly prohibit event contracts on: ... Sports ... By preventing CFTC-regulated entities from listing or clearing these contracts—except in the narrow case of legitimate commercial hedging—the STOP Corrupt Bets Act would protect markets from manipulation and conflicts of interest.

The STOP Corrupt Bets Act would ban betting by CFTC-regulated entities on sports event contracts, except for legitimate commercial hedging purposes.

New Merkley, Raskin Legislation Bans Gambling on Elections, Sports, War, and Government Activity - Merkley
primary · other · model gpt-4.1

Evidence

The Senate’s first bipartisan bill seeking to regulate prediction markets would prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing prediction contracts that resemble a sports bet or casino-style game, including contracts related to sporting events and casino-style games such as slot machine games, video poker, blackjack and bingo.

A federal bill was introduced to ban sports- and casino-style prediction contracts on CFTC-registered platforms, but the measure was not enacted in the source material.

partial same_term A for effort

Sens. Schiff, Curtis Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Ban Sports Prediction Market Contracts
primary · model gpt-5.4-mini · confidence 91%

Contest this evidence item

Hickenlooper and Murphy introduced the BETS OFF Act, legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome; the bill also amends illegal gambling laws to shut down payment systems to illegal online platforms and impose criminal penalties on operators.

Hickenlooper pursued related anti-prediction-market legislation, but this bill targets war and government actions rather than sports prediction contracts or casino-style games.

unresolved same_term A for effort

Hickenlooper, Murphy Introduce Bicameral Bill to Ban Prediction Markets On War, Government Actions
primary · model gpt-5.4-mini · confidence 77%

Contest this evidence item

GovInfo records S. 4160 as an introduced Senate bill, read twice and referred to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. Its full title is to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit certain sports and casino-style event contracts.

Exact Senate legislation matching the promised ban was introduced, but the official record shows only introduction and committee referral, not enactment.

never same_term

S. 4160 (IS) - Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

Contest this evidence item

The introduced text would add a Commodity Exchange Act subsection barring registered entities from listing, clearing, or trading contracts tied to sporting events, athletic competitions, or casino-style games.

The bill text contains the promised statutory prohibition, showing a concrete proposal existed, but the source is introduced text rather than enacted law.

partial same_term

S. 4160 Introduced Text - Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 97%

Contest this evidence item

Congress.gov lists H.R. 7477 as introduced by Rep. Dina Titus on February 10, 2026. Latest action: referred to the House Committee on Agriculture. Status: Introduced.

A House bill with the same substantive goal was introduced and referred, but did not pass either chamber or become law in the official status record.

never same_term

All Info - H.R.7477 - 119th Congress: Sporting event or casino-style gaming contracts
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 95%

Contest this evidence item

GovInfo records S. 4115 as introduced by Sen. Murphy for himself and Sen. Hickenlooper, then read twice and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary. The bill title is to ban certain types of wagers.

Hickenlooper was an original Senate participant in adjacent prediction-market legislation, but this official record shows a referred bill, not enacted law, and not the specific sports/casino-style CFTC ban.

unresolved same_term A for effort

S. 4115 (IS) - Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 93%

Contest this evidence item

Hickenlooper's office described the BETS OFF Act as bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where someone knows or controls the outcome.

This supports an effort badge for Hickenlooper on prediction-market restrictions, but the stated bill scope is adjacent and does not deliver the promised sports/casino-style CFTC-registered entity ban.

unresolved same_term A for effort

Hickenlooper, Murphy Introduce Bicameral Bill to Ban Prediction Markets On War, Government Actions
primary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Hickenlooper questioned witnesses about prediction markets, CFTC oversight, state gambling-rule circumvention, sports betting risks, and noted his BETS OFF Act and related CFTC letters.

Hickenlooper continued oversight and advocacy against sports/casino-like prediction markets in the same Senate term, but the evidence is oversight activity rather than enacted federal legislation.

partial same_term A for effort

WATCH: Hickenlooper Hammers Prediction Markets on Insider Trading, Corruption in Senate Hearing
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 88%

Contest this evidence item

Within the lookback window, CFTC proposed amendments for event-contract prediction markets and opened comments until July 27, 2026. The proposal says some sports contracts based on overall outcomes, final scores, point differentials, win-loss results, tournament advancement, statistics, or season-long metrics would weigh against finding them contrary to the public interest, while pre-collegiate sports and certain injury, officiating, discrete-action, or fight contracts would likely be barred.

Rather than implementing a federal legislative ban on sports prediction markets, CFTC proposed a framework that would allow many sports event contracts on registered entities while restricting selected categories. This cuts against delivery of the promised broad statutory prohibition.

never same_term

Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations, 91 Fed. Reg. 35806
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

Contest this evidence item

CFTC said it filed suit against Kentucky to block state efforts to shut down CFTC-registered contract markets under state law, and stated it was committed to maintaining exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

During the lookback window, the federal regulator was litigating to protect CFTC-regulated prediction markets from state shutdown efforts, not enforcing or implementing a federal ban on sports/casino-style contracts.

unresolved same_term

CFTC Sues Kentucky to Prevent Violation of CFTC’s Exclusive Jurisdiction
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 93%

Contest this evidence item

GovInfo lists S. 4160 as introduced March 23, 2026, read twice, and referred to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. The title is to prohibit certain event contracts involving sports and casino-style games.

The matching Senate bill existed but the official record shows only introduction and referral, not passage or enactment.

never same_term

S. 4160 (IS) - Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 97%

Contest this evidence item

The introduced bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act so that no contract relating to a sporting event, athletic competition, or casino-style game may be listed or made available for clearing or trading through a registered entity.

The bill text matches the promise’s substance, but it remained introduced text and therefore only shows a concrete proposal, not delivery.

partial same_term

S. 4160 Introduced Text - Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 97%

Contest this evidence item

Congress.gov lists H.R. 7477 as introduced February 10, 2026, referred to House Agriculture, and still at the Introduced status. The official title would prohibit registered Commodity Exchange Act entities from transactions involving sporting event or casino-style gaming contracts.

The House counterpart also remained only introduced and referred, so it did not deliver the promised federal statutory ban.

never same_term

All Info - H.R.7477 - 119th Congress: Sporting event or casino-style gaming contracts
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

Contest this evidence item

Hickenlooper criticized prediction markets at a Senate hearing for bypassing state gambling rules, questioned witnesses on CFTC oversight, and said sports betting made up large portions of Polymarket and Kalshi activity. His office also noted his related BETS OFF Act and letters to CFTC.

This supports a serious effort badge through oversight and adjacent legislation, but it did not enact the specific federal ban on sports and casino-style CFTC contracts.

partial same_term A for effort

WATCH: Hickenlooper Hammers Prediction Markets on Insider Trading, Corruption in Senate Hearing
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Assessments

never same_term A for effort

The promised outcome required enacted federal legislation banning CFTC-registered entities from listing sports prediction market contracts and casino-style games. The matching Senate and House bills were introduced and referred to committee, but neither passed or became law. Hickenlooper undertook same-term oversight and introduced adjacent prediction-market restrictions through the BETS OFF Act, but that bill did not cover the full sports/casino-style CFTC ban and also was not enacted. This is a serious but unsuccessful effort, not delivery.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 94%

never same_term A for effort

The promised federal ban was not enacted. The matching sports/casino-style CFTC bill, S.4160, remained only introduced and referred, and the House counterpart H.R.7477 also remained introduced. Hickenlooper did cosponsor adjacent prediction-market legislation and pursued oversight/advocacy on related sports-betting and CFTC issues, which supports an effort badge, but those actions did not deliver the specific statutory prohibition.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 93%

never same_term A for effort

The promised federal outcome was a statutory ban on sports prediction market contracts and casino-style games listed by CFTC-registered entities. The evidence shows such legislation was introduced in the Senate in March 2026, but not enacted, so the ban itself was not delivered. Hickenlooper also introduced related prediction-market legislation in the same term, but it targeted war, government actions, terrorism, assassination, and manipulable events rather than the specific sports/casino-style CFTC contract ban. That supports credit for a serious adjacent legislative effort, not fulfillment of the promised outcome.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 84%