Ban prediction markets on war and government actions through federal legislation.

John W. Hickenlooper · Colorado · Democratic

policy impact 8.00 specificity 8.00 extraction confidence 98%

Contest this claim

Occurrences

The bicameral bill would ban betting through prediction markets on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions. ... The STOP Corrupt Bets Act would: Explicitly prohibit event contracts on: Elections and their outcome; Government actions across all branches unless there’s a commercial hedging need; Sports, and; U.S. or foreign military actions.

The STOP Corrupt Bets Act would explicitly prohibit event contracts on government actions across all branches, military actions, and elections except where a commercial hedging need exists.

New Merkley, Raskin Legislation Bans Gambling on Elections, Sports, War, and Government Activity - Merkley
primary · other · model gpt-4.1

Senators Chris Murphy and John Hickenlooper introduced the BETS OFF Act. This legislation aims to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.

John Hickenlooper committed to banning prediction markets that allow bets on government actions, war, and similar events by introducing federal legislation.

Amo, Murphy, Casar, Ansari Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets from Enabling Officials to Bet On and Profit Off War
primary · other · model gpt-4.1

The bill, H.R. 7942 , would explicitly prohibit any Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered entity from listing any contract that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death. Sen. Adam Schiff leads the Senate version of the bill.

Promises to pass federal legislation that would explicitly prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death.

Rep. Mike Levin Introduces DEATH BETS Act to Ban Death & War Prediction Contracts | U.S. Congressman Mike Levin
secondary · other · model gpt-4.1

The Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act bans wagers on war, cracks down on insider trading, and protects consumers from fraud ... the bill: ... Bans prediction market listings related to war, death, and military action;

The source describes legislation that would ban prediction markets related to war, death, and military action.

[2026-03-11] Blumenthal Introduces New Legislation to Regulate...
secondary · other · model gpt-4.1

We write to urge the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit event contracts tied to U.S. military operations and investigate whether any insider trading has occurred in connection with recent military strikes against Iran. ... To address dangerous national security, market integrity, and immoral outcomes, the CFTC must enforce the law and immediately halt trading in event contracts tied to U.S. military operations.

Hickenlooper (along with Senator Reed) publicly urges the CFTC to prohibit event contracts related to U.S. military operations and calls for immediate enforcement to halt trading in such prediction markets.

[2026-03-09] Reed & Hickenlooper Urge CFTC to Increase Transparency,...
secondary · other · model gpt-4.1

Senators John Hickenlooper and Jack Reed sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig, urging the CFTC to prohibit gambling contracts on events tied to U.S. military operations.

Hickenlooper urged a prohibition on gambling contracts related to U.S. military operations.

Hickenlooper, Reed Push to Ban Online Gambling on Military Operations
primary · other · model gpt-4.1

Evidence

On March 9, 2026, Senators John Hickenlooper and Jack Reed sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig, urging the CFTC to prohibit gambling contracts on events tied to U.S. military operations. This action was in response to reports of users profiting from bets on U.S. strikes in Iran and the death of Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Hickenlooper and Reed urged the CFTC to ban gambling on U.S. military operations due to concerns over insider trading and national security risks.

partial same_term A for effort

Hickenlooper, Reed Push to Ban Online Gambling on Military Operations
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

On March 18, 2026, Senators John Hickenlooper and Chris Murphy introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. This legislation aims to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. The bill also seeks to enforce these rules by shutting down payment systems to illegal online platforms and imposing criminal penalties for those involved.

Hickenlooper co-introduced the BETS OFF Act to prohibit prediction markets on sensitive government-related events.

partial same_term A for effort

Hickenlooper, Murphy Introduce Bicameral Bill to Ban Prediction Markets On War, Government Actions
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

On March 9, 2026, Senators Jack Reed and John Hickenlooper called on the CFTC to prohibit event contracts tied to U.S. military operations and to investigate potential insider trading related to recent military strikes against Iran. They emphasized the national security risks and moral concerns associated with such prediction markets.

Hickenlooper and Reed urged the CFTC to ban and investigate prediction markets related to U.S. military operations.

partial same_term A for effort

[2026-03-09] Reed & Hickenlooper Urge CFTC to Increase Transparency,...
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

On March 26, 2026, Senators Jeff Merkley and Representative Jamie Raskin introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, aiming to ban betting through prediction markets on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions. This legislation responds to the recent growth of prediction markets offering event contracts on sensitive topics.

Merkley and Raskin introduced legislation to ban prediction market betting on sensitive government-related events.

partial same_term A for effort

New Merkley, Raskin Legislation Bans Gambling on Elections, Sports, War, and Government Activity - Merkley
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

Contest this evidence item

On March 30, 2026, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced bipartisan legislation to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing prediction contracts related to sporting events. The bill also seeks to prohibit 'casino-style games' from being listed on these platforms.

Schiff and Curtis introduced legislation to ban sports-related prediction market contracts.

partial same_term A for effort

Sens. Schiff, Curtis Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Ban Sports Prediction Market Contracts
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

Contest this evidence item

On March 26, 2026, Senators Todd Young and Elissa Slotkin introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. The bill prohibits federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to bet on prediction market contracts.

Young and Slotkin introduced legislation to prevent government officials from using insider information on prediction markets.

partial same_term A for effort

Young, Slotkin Lead Bipartisan Bill to Stop Insider Trading from Government Officials on Prediction Markets
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

Contest this evidence item

On March 18, 2026, Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari co-introduced the BETS OFF Act, aiming to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. The bill also seeks to enforce these rules by shutting down payment systems to illegal online platforms and imposing criminal penalties for those involved.

Ansari co-introduced the BETS OFF Act to prohibit prediction markets on sensitive government-related events.

partial same_term A for effort

Ansari Supports Bicameral Bill to Ban Prediction Markets on Government Actions, War, and Events Ripe for Rigging
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

Contest this evidence item

On March 18, 2026, Congressman Gabe Amo, along with Senators Chris Murphy and John Hickenlooper, introduced the BETS OFF Act. This legislation aims to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. The bill also seeks to enforce these rules by shutting down payment systems to illegal online platforms and imposing criminal penalties for those involved.

Amo, Murphy, and Hickenlooper introduced the BETS OFF Act to prohibit prediction markets on sensitive government-related events.

partial same_term A for effort

Amo, Murphy, Casar, Ansari Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets from Enabling Officials to Bet On and Profit Off War
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Today, U.S. Senators John Hickenlooper and Jack Reed sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig calling on the CFTC to prohibit gambling contracts on events tied to U.S. military operations.

Senators Hickenlooper and Reed urged the CFTC to ban gambling contracts related to U.S. military operations.

partial same_term A for effort

Hickenlooper, Reed Push to Ban Online Gambling on Military Operations
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Congressman Gabe Amo (D-RI-01), U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX-35) and Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ-03) unveiled the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.

The BETS OFF Act was introduced to ban prediction market contracts on government actions, terrorism, war, and related events.

partial same_term A for effort

Amo, Murphy, Casar, Ansari Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets from Enabling Officials to Bet On and Profit Off War
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Senator Jeff Merkley and Representative Jamie Raskin introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions.

The STOP Corrupt Bets Act aims to prohibit prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions.

partial same_term A for effort

New Merkley, Raskin Legislation Bans Gambling on Elections, Sports, War, and Government Activity - Merkley
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

U.S. Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced bipartisan legislation to prohibit Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered entities from listing prediction contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games.

Bipartisan legislation was introduced to ban CFTC-registered entities from listing prediction contracts resembling sports bets or casino-style games.

partial same_term A for effort

Sens. Schiff, Curtis Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Ban Sports Prediction Market Contracts
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

U.S. Senators Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to prohibit federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to bet on prediction market contracts.

The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act aims to prevent government officials from using insider information in prediction markets.

partial same_term A for effort

Young, Slotkin Lead Bipartisan Bill to Stop Insider Trading from Government Officials on Prediction Markets
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal introduced the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act to prevent abuse and fraud in prediction markets, including banning wagers on war and cracking down on insider trading.

The Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act seeks to regulate prediction markets by banning wagers on war and addressing insider trading.

partial same_term A for effort

[2026-03-11] Blumenthal Introduces New Legislation to Regulate...
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Representative Jamie Raskin and Senator Jeff Merkley introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions.

The STOP Corrupt Bets Act aims to prohibit prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports, and military actions.

partial same_term A for effort

Raskin, Merkley Legislation Would Ban Prediction Market Gambling on Elections, Sports, War and Government Activity
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Representative Mike Levin introduced the DEATH BETS Act to explicitly prohibit any Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered entity from listing any contract that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death.

The DEATH BETS Act seeks to ban prediction market contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual's death.

partial same_term A for effort

Rep. Mike Levin Introduces DEATH BETS Act to Ban Death & War Prediction Contracts | U.S. Congressman Mike Levin
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

Contest this evidence item

Assessments

partial same_term A for effort

Multiple pieces of evidence confirm that Senator Hickenlooper made significant legislative and regulatory efforts toward banning prediction markets on war and government actions. He co-introduced the BETS OFF Act (targeting betting on sensitive government actions, war, and assassination), joined letters urging the CFTC to take regulatory action, and engaged in related legislative activities. However, no evidence confirms that comprehensive federal legislation completing the ban was enacted; all cited actions remain at the bill introduction or advocacy stage.

provider openai · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 95%

partial same_term A for effort

Senator John Hickenlooper took significant legislative and executive actions toward banning prediction markets on war and government actions, including co-introducing the BETS OFF Act and urging the CFTC to prohibit such contracts. Multiple bills addressing the issue, some with Hickenlooper's sponsorship or support, were introduced. However, there is no evidence that the proposed federal legislation was signed into law or fully enacted, so the promise is only partially fulfilled. The timing of efforts aligns with the current term.

provider openai · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 95%

partial same_term A for effort

Senator John Hickenlooper actively co-introduced and advocated for the BETS OFF Act and urged the CFTC to take regulatory action, fulfilling the commitment to make a serious legislative and executive attempt to ban prediction markets on war and government actions. However, there is no evidence that a federal legislative ban has actually been enacted; only proposals and requests for regulatory action are documented. Therefore, the promise was partially fulfilled due to meaningful effort but not final delivery.

provider openai · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 95%