Ban Members of Congress and their immediate family members from participating in prediction markets.

Eugene Simon Vindman · Virginia · Democratic

policy impact 0.74 specificity 0.92 extraction confidence 97%

Commitment kind: unknown. Promised action: not established. Promised outcome: not established. Deadline: unknown; not assumed expired.

Occurrences

today introduced common sense legislation to prohibit Members of Congress and their immediate family members from participating in prediction markets

Vindman says he is introducing legislation to ban members of Congress and their immediate family from using prediction markets.

Vindman Leads U.S. House Effort to Ban Members of Congress from Using Prediction Markets | Representative Eugene Vindman
primary · press_release · model gpt-5.4-mini

By Mr. VINDMAN: H.R. 8838. A bill to amending chapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, to prohibit Members of Congress from certain participation in prediction markets, and for other purposes; to the Committee on House Administration.

Vindman introduced a bill to prohibit Members of Congress from participating in prediction markets.

CREC-2026-05-14-pt1-PgH3531.pdf
secondary · other · model gpt-5.4-mini

Evidence

legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

Vindman's office said he introduced legislation to prohibit Members of Congress and immediate family members from participating in prediction markets.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Concrete action in the lookback window toward the pledge, but the release describes introduction of legislation, not enactment of a ban.

unresolved same_term A for effort

Vindman Leads U.S. House Effort to Ban Members of Congress from Using Prediction Markets | Representative Eugene Vindman
primary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 93%

legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

The Congressional Record lists H.R. 8838 by Mr. Vindman and referral to the House Committee on House Administration.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Official House record confirms the bill was introduced and referred to committee; it does not show passage or enactment.

unresolved same_term A for effort

CREC-2026-05-14-pt1-PgH3531.pdf
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 95%

legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

GovInfo records S. Res. 708 as considered amended and agreed to, amending Senate Rule XXXVII on prediction-market trading.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): The Senate adopted an internal rule barring Senators from prediction-market trading. This is partial delivery only: it applies to the Senate, not the House or all immediate family members.

partial same_term

S. Res. 708 (ATS) - Amending rule XXXVII of the Standing Rules of the Senate to prohibit Senators from trading on prediction markets
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 94%

legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

The Ethics handout says Senate Rule 37.15 bars Senate Members, officers, and employees from prediction markets, but not spouses or dependent children.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Within the lookback window, Senate guidance confirms the Senate-side ban is in force and also confirms a family-member gap remains.

partial same_term

U.S. Senate Select Committee on Ethics Code of Official Conduct Training Handout
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

Rep. Crow's office said House rules currently do not address prediction markets or stock trading and urged a House ban covering members, families, and staff.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): An official House-side source in the lookback window indicates the House had not yet adopted the requested prediction-market restrictions.

unresolved same_term

Crow Seeks to Ban Members of Congress from Stock Trading, Insider Trading on Prediction Markets | Representative Jason Crow
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 89%

legacy_unverified · Source version not recorded · locator unknown

Congress.gov lists Vindman in the original sponsor block; the bill remains at Introduced status with referral to Oversight and House Administration.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Vindman also backed a related prediction-market bill earlier in the same term. The text is narrower than the pledge because it is conditional on material nonpublic information and does not list immediate family members as covered individuals.

unresolved same_term A for effort

Text - H.R.7004 - Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 91%

Assessments

Public state: unverified As of unknown · legacy_unverified · . Original AI recommendation (not independently established): unresolved. same_term A for effort

Vindman has taken concrete same-term action by introducing H.R. 8838 to prohibit Members of Congress and immediate family members from participating in prediction markets, and he also backed a narrower related bill. However, the evidence only shows introduction and committee referral, not passage or adoption of a House-wide or Congress-wide ban. The Senate has adopted a narrower internal rule for Senators, but it does not cover the House or immediate family members and is not enough to satisfy the full promise. Because the main Vindman-backed legislation is pending rather than enacted or definitively failed, the promise remains unresolved with an effort badge.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 94%