Ban prediction markets and wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.

Christopher Murphy · Connecticut · Democratic

policy impact 4.00 specificity 1.00 extraction confidence 98%

Occurrences

Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Representative Greg Casar (D-Texas-35) unveiled the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.

Christopher Murphy committed to banning prediction markets and related wagering on sensitive government events and actions through proposed legislation.

Murphy, Casar Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets On Government Actions, War, and Events Ripe For Rigging
primary · press_release · model gpt-4.1

Evidence

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and U.S. Representative Greg Casar (D-Texas-35) unveiled the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.

Senator Murphy introduced the BETS OFF Act to prohibit prediction markets on sensitive government actions and events susceptible to manipulation.

partial same_term A for effort

Murphy, Casar Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets On Government Actions, War, and Events Ripe For Rigging
primary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 90%

U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) has introduced a bill to ban online betting on government actions. It comes after a handful of people made a lot of money betting on the beginning of the war in Iran.

Senator Murphy's bill aims to ban online betting on government actions following reports of individuals profiting from bets on the onset of the war in Iran.

partial same_term A for effort

Murphy bill would ban online betting on war, government actions
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

US Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and US Representative Greg Casar (D-Texas-35) this week introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.

Senator Murphy and Representative Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban prediction markets on government actions and events prone to manipulation.

partial same_term A for effort

Latest bicameral bill aims to ban prediction markets on US government actions
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 85%

A bicameral federal bill hopes to ban all prediction market activity surrounding certain government actions, including acts of war, terrorism, and assassination. Congressman Gabe Amo (D-RI-01), U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX-35) and Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ-03) introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act.

Senator Murphy, along with other lawmakers, introduced the BETS OFF Act to prohibit prediction markets on specific government actions.

partial same_term A for effort

Bill Seeks to Ban Betting on Government and War
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

A bicameral federal bill hopes to ban all prediction market activity surrounding certain government actions, including acts of war, terrorism, and assassination. Congressman Gabe Amo (D-RI-01), U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX-35) and Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ-03) introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act.

Senator Murphy and colleagues introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban prediction markets on government actions susceptible to insider knowledge.

partial same_term A for effort

BETS OFF Bill Seeks to Ban Prediction Markets Involving Government Actions
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

Two members of Congress have introduced a bill that would ban all prediction market contracts on government actions or outcomes known to one person. Rep. Greg Casar and Sen. Chris Murphy introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act Tuesday.

Senator Murphy and Representative Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban prediction markets on government actions and events with known outcomes.

partial same_term A for effort

Bill introduced in Congress would ban all prediction markets on government actions
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 85%

Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, adding to recent pieces of legislation filed by lawmakers that aim to ban the trading of certain event contracts.

Senator Murphy and Representative Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban certain prediction market event contracts.

partial same_term A for effort

New Congress bill wants prediction markets to stop political contracts
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 80%

United States Senator Chris Murphy and House Representative Greg Casar are set to introduce legislation to rein in prediction markets after bettors cashed in on geopolitical conflicts, including the joint strikes the US and Israel launched against Iran and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Senator Murphy and Representative Casar introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets following reports of individuals profiting from bets on geopolitical events.

partial same_term A for effort

US lawmakers Murphy, Casar push legislation to regulate prediction markets
secondary · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 85%

GovInfo lists S. 4115 as introduced in the Senate on March 17, 2026; the action states that Mr. Murphy introduced the bill, it was read twice, and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary.

Official bill status confirms Murphy made a concrete legislative attempt to ban the targeted wagers, but the bill is still only introduced and referred, not enacted.

partial same_term A for effort

Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act (S. 4115)
secondary · model gpt-5.4-mini · confidence 99%

Murphy's office said he introduced the BETS OFF Act in response to suspicious betting activity and described it as legislation to ban prediction markets involving government actions, war, and events where one person knows or controls the outcome.

Murphy publicly reaffirmed the bill after introduction, showing continued pursuit of the promise, but this is still not evidence of enactment or implementation.

partial same_term A for effort

ICYMI: Murphy on Substack: Prediction Markets Are the Latest Sign of Our Spiritual Disintegration
secondary · model gpt-5.4-mini · confidence 93%

Assessments

never same_term A for effort

Murphy materially advanced the promised policy by introducing the BETS OFF Act in March 2026, a federal bill matching the claim's substance: banning prediction markets and wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events controlled or known by an individual. However, the evidence shows only introduction and referral to committee, with no enactment or implemented federal ban. Because this was a serious legislative attempt that has not delivered the promised legal outcome, it is scored as not fulfilled with effort credit.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

partial same_term A for effort

Senator Chris Murphy introduced the BETS OFF Act, a bicameral bill aimed at banning prediction markets and wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events prone to insider or controlled outcomes. Multiple secondary sources confirm the introduction and Murphy's leading sponsorship of this legislation during the relevant term. However, there is no evidence that the bill was enacted into law. Therefore, while a clear and significant legislative attempt was made to fulfill the campaign promise, the outcome (actual ban) has not been delivered.

provider openai · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 95%

partial same_term A for effort

Senator Chris Murphy fulfilled the effort component of his promise by introducing comprehensive legislation (the BETS OFF Act) to ban prediction markets and wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events susceptible to manipulation or insider knowledge. Multiple credible sources confirm this legislative attempt during the same term. However, there is no evidence indicating that the bill was enacted into law or that the complete promised outcome (a nationwide ban) was delivered. Thus, the promise is considered partially fulfilled due to serious legislative effort but not delivery.

provider openai · model gpt-4.1 · confidence 95%