Introduce and support legislation to regulate prediction markets by banning listings related to war, death, and military action; enforcing rules against insider trading and market manipulation; requiring consumer protections; and preserving state gambling regulatory authority.

Richard Blumenthal · Connecticut · Democratic

policy impact 0.70 specificity 0.86 extraction confidence 88%

Commitment kind: unknown. Promised action: not established. Promised outcome: not established. Deadline: unknown; not assumed expired.

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Occurrences

My measure—the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act—puts guardrails on this out-of-control industry. It bans dangerous and unethical bets and protects consumers from fraud and other predatory practices.

Blumenthal introduced and promoted the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act to regulate prediction markets with federal guardrails, bans on dangerous bets, consumer protections, and limits on federal preemption of state gambling rules.

[2026-03-11] Blumenthal Introduces New Legislation to Regulate...
primary · press_release · model gpt-5.5

Evidence

unverified · Source version 61810 · locator unknown

GovInfo lists S. 4060, the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026, as introduced by Richard Blumenthal with Andy Kim on March 11, 2026 and referred to Senate Judiciary.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Official congressional publication record confirms Blumenthal introduced the relevant prediction-markets bill during his current Senate term.

delivered same_term A for effort

S. 4060 (IS) - Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026 - BILLS-119s4060is | Content Details | GovInfo
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 98%

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unverified · Source version 61814 · locator unknown

The bill text prohibits use of material nonpublic information, manipulation, and listings that relate to war, military action, or death.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Official bill text matches the promise elements on insider trading, market manipulation, and banning war/death/military-action listings.

delivered same_term A for effort

S. 4060 Introduced in Senate - Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 97%

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unverified · Source version 61814 · locator unknown

The bill requires state wagering programs, self-exclusion, disclosures, affordability checks, AI limits, advertising restrictions, licensing, age/location verification, and state enforcement authority.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Official bill text covers the consumer protection and state gambling regulatory authority components of the promise.

delivered same_term A for effort

S. 4060 Introduced in Senate - Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 95%

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unverified · Source version 61814 · locator unknown

Section 11 preserves state and tribal authority to enforce stricter prediction-market laws and bars online prediction-market event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Official bill text directly addresses preserving state gambling authority and reversing federal preemption of state oversight.

delivered same_term A for effort

S. 4060 Introduced in Senate - Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 95%

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unverified · Source version 4201 · locator unknown

Blumenthal announced his Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act, saying it bans unethical bets, addresses insider trading and manipulation, protects consumers, and returns regulatory authority to states.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): Blumenthal's official Senate release confirms both introduction and his public support for the legislation's core regulatory provisions.

delivered same_term A for effort

[2026-03-11] Blumenthal Introduces New Legislation to Regulate...
primary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

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unverified · Source version 16506 · locator unknown

Blumenthal pressed the CFTC on prediction-market oversight and described himself as author of the Act, saying it would require clear terms and responsibility for bet resolution.

Unverified model/legacy excerpt; not proof. AI summary (separate from source): A later official Senate action shows continued support and advancement of the same prediction-markets regulatory agenda after introduction.

delivered same_term A for effort

[2026-04-21] Blumenthal Calls Out Prediction Markets' Failure to...
primary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 90%

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verified · Source version 61810 · locator 1293

Mr. Blumenthal (for himself and Mr. Kim) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary

Fetched verbatim passage. AI summary (separate from source): Official GovInfo bill record confirms Blumenthal introduced S. 4060 in the 119th Congress, satisfying the introduction component of the commitment during the relevant Senate term.

delivered same_term A for effort

S. 4060 (IS) - Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026 - BILLS-119s4060is | Content Details | GovInfo
secondary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 98%

Contest this evidence item

verified · Source version 4201 · locator 2554

Enacts federally-enforced rules on insider trading and market manipulation; Bans prediction market listings related to war, death, and military action;

Fetched verbatim passage. AI summary (separate from source): Blumenthal's official Senate release documents his support for the bill and describes core provisions matching the pledge, including insider-trading and manipulation rules and bans on war, death, and military-action listings; the same release also describes consumer protections and state regulatory authority provisions.

delivered same_term A for effort

[2026-03-11] Blumenthal Introduces New Legislation to Regulate...
primary · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%

Contest this evidence item

Assessments

Public state: partial As of 2026-09-21 · verified · . Original AI recommendation (not independently established): partial. same_term A for effort

Verified evidence shows Blumenthal materially delivered the introduction component: GovInfo says he introduced the bill, and the verified Senate passage confirms key provisions on insider trading, market manipulation, and bans on war, death, and military-action prediction-market listings. The verified commitment also shows his own support for the measure. However, the verified passages provided do not prove every claimed component, especially preserving state gambling regulatory authority, so full delivery is not established from verified evidence alone.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 78%

Public state: unverified As of unknown · legacy_unverified · . Original AI recommendation (not independently established): delivered. same_term

Blumenthal fulfilled the promise as framed because it required introducing and supporting legislation, not securing enactment. Official records and Senate materials show he introduced S. 4060, the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026, during his current Senate term, and the bill contains the promised bans on war, death, and military-action listings; insider trading and manipulation rules; consumer protections; and preservation of state and tribal regulatory authority. His later CFTC oversight letter also shows continued support for the same agenda.

provider codex_cli · model gpt-5.5 · confidence 96%