Trust Formula

Active version: 0.2.0

Current weights

• Delivered in the same office term: 1.0
• Delivered in a later elected term: 0.8
• Partially delivered: 0.4
• Never delivered: 0.0

Confidence shrinkage

The observed delivery rate is pulled back toward 50 using a prior sample size of 12. Thin records stay conservative. Unresolved claims mostly affect confidence until better evidence appears.

Current publication and scoring rules

• Verified evidence: the original commitment and supporting passages must pass verification before an assessment can affect the public score. Legacy unverified assessments remain excluded.
• A never-delivered outcome requires an expired, documented deadline. Without one, the claim remains pending rather than a failure.
• Delivered and partially delivered outcomes require established same-term or later-term timing. Unknown timing remains outside the delivery score.
• Duplicate claims marked as repeats are excluded from scoring; repeated statements do not add independent promises. Duplicate detection is not guaranteed to find every repeat.
• Pending, unverified, and timing-unknown claims are shown separately from resolved delivery outcomes.

Planned additions

• Impact weighting for higher-stakes promises
• User-filtered scoring by source category and evidence tier
• Historical formula versions with preserved public changelog