Trust Formula

Active version: 0.1.0

Current weights

• Delivered in the same office term: 1.0
• Delivered in a later elected term: 0.8
• Partially delivered: 0.4
• Never delivered: 0.0

Confidence shrinkage

The observed delivery rate is pulled back toward 50 using a prior sample size of 12. Thin records stay conservative. Unresolved claims mostly affect confidence until better evidence appears.

Planned additions

• Duplicate-claim handling across repeated campaign statements
• Impact weighting for higher-stakes promises
• User-filtered scoring by source category and evidence tier
• Historical formula versions with preserved public changelog